D2,1.philippines country practices

Measuring Gross Regional
Domestic Product:
The Philippine Experience

by

MARIA FE M. TALENTO
Division Head
Production Accounts Division
National Statistical Coordination Board

International Workshop Regional Products
and Income Accounts
Tiantan Hotel, Beijing China
15 -17 March, 2010

Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income Republic of the Philippines
Accounts NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
I. Introduction
II. Compilation Process: Gross Regional
Domestic Product (GRDP) of the
Philippines
III. Sources of Data
IV. Estimation Methodology
V. Development Efforts
VI. Issues on the GRDP
VII. Current Improvements
VIII.Next Steps

I. INTRODUCTION

 The Philippine Statistical System
(PSS)

 A highly decentralized statistical
system:
- statistics are produced by a number
of major producers of primary data and
by smaller units in all levels of
government which generates statistics
as a by-product of their administrative
or regulatory functions

I.
INTRODUCTION
 The Current Gross Regional
Domestic Product (GRDP)

 follows the 1968 UNSNA but to a
limited extent already incorporates
the recommendations of the 1993
SNA.

 a Designated Statistics under
Executive Order No. 352 and is
currently being developed and
maintained by the National
Statistical Coordination Board
Accounts
(NSCB)
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION

I. INTRODUCTION
 Milestones in GRDP estimation:
 1974 – first compilation of the GRDP for
the period 1971-1974
 1978 – GRDP compilation was resumed
and institutionalized
 Data Series of GRDP: 1978-2008

 Coverage of GRDP:
 17 regions

 Date of Release of GRDP:
 Every first Thursday of August of the
Int’l
current year
Workshop Regional Products and Income Republic of the Philippines

II. COMPILATION PROCESS
 The current GRDP is compiled by
industrial origin:

1. Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry
a) Agriculture
b) Forestry

1. Industry
a) Mining and Quarrying
b) Manufacturing
c) Construction
d) Electricity and Water


 The current GRDP is compiled by
industrial origin:

3. Services
a) Wholesale and Retail Trade
b) Transportation, Communication and
Storage (TCS)
c) Finance
d) Ownership of Dwellings and Real
Estate (ODRE)
e) Private Services
f) Government Services

 GRDP Measurement : uses the
production approach:
- Unduplicated sum of all the goods and
services produced in the regional economy
(by resident producers), valued at
producers’
prices
GRDP (P) = Σ Gross Value Added (GVA)
by industry, by region


 Top to Bottom Approach:

- National control total by sector is
allocated by region
- data support is stronger at the
national level


 The NSCB is in the process of devolving the
estimation of the GRDP to the NSCB
Regional Offices:
- the NSCB Central Office estimates the GRDP
by sector for all 17 regions using the national
level as control total.
- Simultaneously, the 9 NSCB regional offices
come up with an independent estimate of
their region’s GDP by sector using available
data and indicators from their respective
regions

0 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income Republic of the Philippines


 Estimates of the Central Office and the NSCB
Regions go through a deliberation process by
sector by region (validation of data, major
developments in the region, etc.)
 The final estimates are reached, in consensus
with the NSCB Regions after incorporating all
considerations in the deliberation process.
 Independent estimates from the regions,
however, will not add up to the national total
 National total by sector is allocated to the
Regions using percentage distribution.


III. SOURCES OF DATA
 Census/Survey-based data
- Census of Phil. Business & Industry (CPBI)
- Annual Survey of Phil. Business & Industry
(ASPBI)
- Quarterly Survey of Phil Business & Industry
(QSPBI)

 Administrative-based data
 Special Studies
 Indicators from Industry Associations (i.e.,
Chamber of Mines, Cement Manufacturers Assn. of the
Philippines, etc.)

IV. Current Price Estimation: by
region
 Indirect Approach: Use of GVARs

GVA = Gross Output * Gross Value Added
Ratio (GVAR)

where:
GVAR = Gross Value Added
Gross Output

• Sectors: Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry,
Mining
and Quarrying

IV. Current Price Estimation: by
region
 Value Extrapolation

GVAt = previous GVA level t-1 * growth rate
of
the value of productiont/t-1

•Example: Services sectors – value
extrapolation using the trend of gross revenue
from the Quarterly Survey of Phil Business and
Industry (QSPBI)

IV. Constant Price Estimation: by
region
 Uses the fixed-base year method:

 Single Deflation:
GVAk = GVAt /Deflator

 Quantity Revaluation:
GVAk = (Qtyt * Price at base year)*GVAR

 Volume Extrapolation:
GVAk = GVA level t-1 * 1+ GR rate of
volume or output indicator/t-1


V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS

 Addressing increasing demand for
local level statistics:

 pilot compilation of the Provincial
Product Accounts for the provinces
of Palawan in 1998 and Guimaras
in 2006



 ADVANCE RELEASE CALENDAR: NSCB
has adopted a policy of releasing in
advance the schedule of press
releases for
the national accounts & its related
accounts including the GRDP

 Forging of partnerships with source
agencies

- bilateral meetings, Task Forces



 Supplementary data from the private
sector:
- financial statement of companies
- gross revenue of top food chains
- volume and value of utilities
- Indicators from industry associations

 Incorporated emerging industries
such as the Business Process
Outsourcing (BPO) in GRDP
beginning 2003


 Use of NSCB website to inform the
public:

 Press Releases, Announcements on the
GRDP
 Technical Notes on the GRDP
 Metadata on the GRDP
 Advance Release Calendar on National
Accounts and its Related Accounts
 Regional Fact Sheets
 Response to erroneous GRDP reports
9 Int’l from the media
Workshop Regional Products and Income Republic of the Philippines

VI. ISSUES
 Data Problems
 Data support at the regional level
 Frequent revision of regional
compositions
 Time lag of data sources
Survey/Census results, Price indices, etc.
 Need to update/improve parameters
Ratios used in estimation i.e., GVAR,
undercoverage ratios


VI. ISSUES
 Coverage

 Emerging Industries
 Births and deaths of establishments
 Undercoverage of illegal activities
 Undercoverage of own-account
production


VI. ISSUES
 Some Measurement Problems
 Regional allocation of output
-Economic activities such as Fishing,
Transportation and Communication
industries which extend beyond regional
boundaries
-Problem of allocating the cost of
operations of the head office for
companies with regional branches

 Regional estimates of the informal
sector

VI. ISSUES
 RESOURCES

 Manpower
- fast turnover of national accounts staff in
the central office
- need for training on National Accounts for
NSCB personnel in the Regions
- need for the NSCB Central Office staff to
revive visits to the regions for validation of
estimates


VI. ISSUES
 RESOURCES

 Software for GRDP Compilation:
-need to upgrade current hardware and
software resources
- need to refine the existing computerized
GRDP compilation

 Financial Resources for statistical
activities: limited budget given to
censuses and surveys; Statistical offices
always get low priority in the allocation of
resources


VII. CURRENT IMPROVEMENTS

 Over-all Revision/Rebasing of the
GRDP
 Revised/rebased 1998-2009 series
 Implementation of 1993 SNA Concepts
 Shift in base year to 2000 & eventually 2006
 Improvement in Data and Methodology
 Refinements in the computerized
compilation of the GRDP
 Date of Release: September 2010


VIII. NEXT STEPS

 Compilation of City/Provincial
Product Accounts
 Provision of training to Compilers
and Data Producers
 Policy on Overall Revision/Rebasing
of the GRDP


Maraming Salamat
Po!

URL:
http://www.nscb.gov.ph
e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph


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